what you're doing up at this hour. john tower, what have you got? >> art in florida, i don't know about the other people who are watching about the other people watching, but i have an early tee time. and mike writes we're getting ready for a picnic, and i heard willie turned our table cloth into a shirt. >> come on, come on. you like this shirt. you've got to quiet it down a little bit with the jacket. it's going to grow on you. i got one tweet i enjoyed from doug. applause to willie geist the club goers don't think they're here for the "morning joe" broadcast. people here for the show this morning, people rolling in from the clubs. "morning joe" starts right now. speaker gingrich i think has painfully revealed himself over these last few days. and it's sad to watch. i think, unfortunately, we're

seeing some of the qualities that got him into so much trouble when he was speaker of the house. >> he has a basic policy of carpet bombing his opponent. he doesn't try to build up mitt romney, he tries to tear down who he's oning against. i give respect for the sheer volume of negativity and the sheer amount of money they raise on wall street. >> look at this segue coming in. >> that looks good. good morning. it is monday, january 30th. look at this crowd. we're live at jerry's famous deli on miami beach one day before the florida primary. welcome, everyone, to "morning joe." >> hey, listen -- >> look at max. isn't he cute? i found a baby. i found a baby. >> a lot of things happened, mike barnicle, from south

carolina. >> yes. >> to florida. >> quite a few things happened. >> right here. >> no, max is from burlington, vermont. >> are you a vermont boy? >> anyhow -- >> where's max's mom? never give mika a baby. >> he wants to hear the poll numbers. >> max, do you want to hear the poll numbers. >> he might be having some trouble. he wants to talk about it. with us onset, mike barnicle and national affairs editor for new york magazine and political analyst john heilemann. >> the late nighters and early mornings -- >> and you can tell the ones that came to see the show and the ones that came in from the clubs. >> i've never seen -- and then we'll move on -- a dress that has nothing in the back. there's nothing there, it's amazing. >> let's ask you this quickly as we're trying to sort out which of the south beach viewers are our fans and which ones are from the clubs. the ones with the glow sticks

and pacifiers -- >> look for dilated pupils. >> you look at the front of the "new york times," there are a number of stories. one talking about years of despair in my home state, the sunshine state, unemployment has been over 10% since 2009. the economy's just been miserable. of course, because with the housing crisis came just an absolute avalanche of problems for this state. >> well, you know, joe, what's interesting is people watch us down here this morning in south beach and think of florida. they think of you coming here for a vacation, getting some sun, or coming here when you retire. but this is about four or five different states. we have where we are now south beach. people from naples, some people from ft. myers, it's a different state over there. >> much different state. >> you go up north --

>> panhandle, different from south beach. and also, though, one guy, john heilemann who is popular all across the state, at least among the republican base, jeb bush, "the times" also talking about how jeb's been coy. he has been driving the romney people crazy. because they keep begging him to support him, he just won't do it. >> you know, jeb's a savvy politician, joe. and even marco rubio put his thumb on the scale a little bit. there's no good reason for a floridian politician to get in the republican primary fight, and those guys are hanging back to see what happens. >> and also, mika, you look at the fact that mitt romney is going to win the state of florida without those endorsements. the big question is if you're marco rubio or jeb bush and you want to be the champion of the conservative movement. do you want to be remembered as the guy who endorsed mitt romney at a time he hasn't put out a

plan to tackle entitlements, any plan to really overhaul america's education system in a way with jeb bush or other conservatives would? >> well, that's the choice they're left with. let's take a look at the latest polls. new polls out this week. >> are you going to give that baby back? >> i will. but he wanted to hear the polls. he was very excited about this news. the polls show mitt romney pulling away from newt gingrich and the rest of the field. according to an nbc marist poll, romney leads newt by 15 points. a miami herald tampa bay times polls paints a similar picture with romney up 11 points over gingrich followed by rick santorum and ron paul. and romney's lead is deep and wide. a breakdown shows romney cleaning up in almost every subgroup of voters. beats speaker gingrich 20 points among women. and he's within the margin of error among tea partiers. the miami herald poll also shows

romny holding a commanding lead among hispanics. a large florida voting block. and 72% of registered republicans here in miami-dade county are hispanics and romney leads gingrich by 24 points among those voters. >> i want to tell you about -- max's mom. >> take your baby. >> never give her a baby. >> can i have him back later? thank you. >> so, willie geist, you see this happen a lot of times in elections in states like florida. and as i said coming in to florida from south carolina, florida is a nation in and of itself. one speech in one part of the state is not going to move voters in another part of the city let alone the state. and here you have mitt romney who is running a lot of 30-second ads cleaning up among hispanics despite the fact that even jeb bush called him up and said, hey, mitt, tone it down. remember newt getting in trouble

for being more open-minded on immigration in huge states like that, sometimes those details get lost. and here it's getting lost everywhere. mitt is cleaning up in all groups. >> it's remarkable. this is the big leagues. iowa, new hampshire, south carolina have their place, you can get in a car and drive around the state and campaign there, when you get to the state of florida, you've got to have money. we know that mitt romney has money. he's outspent gingrich 4 to 1 here, you've got to have organization, people on the ground. he's been preparing for tomorrow for six months and you're starting to see it pay off within the last -- the tide had started to turn for mitt romney. >> this state is won, john heilemann, as you know, by a lots of money and 30-second ads. organization doesn't hurt. i think one of the defining moments, and remember this for your book, any help i can assist you with. but what the defining moment of this campaign was and things

turned was that debate where newt goes in, he's got the -- he thinks he's going to have the crowd on his side and finds out that romney's people have packed the joint. >> yep. >> organization has also come through for him. >> i went to an event on saturday that newt gingrich did in orlando. it's a saturday, it was a hispanic town hall meeting where it was in a church and there were about 400, 500 seats in the church. this is saturday afternoon, so no excuses because it's midday of a workday. newt shows up, there's like 40 people in the church. it was the worst advanced event in history. you can't do a town hall meeting with -- >> obviously, newt, just to be fair has had events where thousands of -- it wasn't about newt, it was about -- >> my point is to your point about organization. on a saturday afternoon three days before the florida primary to be having a big hispanic town hall meeting that 35, 37 people show up to with hundreds of empty seats, it was a sign of

not that newt doesn't have a lot of support in the state because he does, showed you how weak the organization was. and he and calista sat on the bus stewing over the disaster of the event. >> that is all about organization. it was terrible because newt has been packing them in across the state. mike barnicle, speaking of organization, and i've got to say. and if you've ever seen a parallel to this, i have never seen campaign staffers leak the type of story that was leaked to the front page of the "new york times" yesterday by romney's staffers basically saying mitt's turned it around but it has nothing to do with mitt, it's all because we're just the smartest guys in the room. for those that don't know, it was a step by step chronicling of the south carolina disaster of how the smart guys in the campaign all sat around and said this is what we're going to do to save our flawed candidate's

campaign. and oh, yeah, they let mitt get a little bit involved, as well. it was a joke. >> well, it was -- shall we say a self-serving piece in the "new york times"? the idea that mitt romney, you know, was teetering on the verge of being in real trouble in florida until a new debate coach and two or other people got him in a room and said no, you have to do this, mitt. but that aside i think when this guy and haleprin finally get to work and put the book "game change 2" together, maybe the most pivotal moment in the republican primaries occurred last week when mitt romney turned to newt gingrich and said have you checked your own investments, mr. speaker? he slapped the bully and the bully didn't do anything in turn. >> that great moment, the campaign staffers made sure that they leaked to the "new york times" that they heard newt say something on the trail, willie, and then all the boston people and the opposition research people got to work and fed their

robot the line that he could spit out -- no, this is -- that story was so self-serving that if i were the candidate, i'd fire the person at the top. >> like high school. >> whoever it was. that doesn't do the campaign any good. that doesn't do me any good. that doesn't do our supporters any good. that's all about you. so congratulations, you have the article, leave now. it was disgusting. >> clearly there was a strategy, though. and mitt romney was a part of it to be aggressive, to punch newt gingrich back in the mouth and go after him. to the extent mitt romney was involved in that decision, i don't know, but there definitely was a new approach taken by the campaign coming out of south carolina. >> they thought he -- that they could get under gingrich's skin. and i take your point about whether that story should have been in print or not. >> you leak it about mitt romney's so smart, had e stormed into a room and said i'm going to stop this right now. >> you take it on the chin as --

>> that's a press manager issue, i won't argue with that. but the truth is, a lot of things in that story were accurate in this sense. they did make a decision to try to get under newt gingrich's skin and they truth squadded him across the state. they knew that gingrich would be unable to stay on his own message if he was confronted with someone needling him all the time and it worked. >> it's still very early in this whole process prior to a november election. but one of the big things, and it's a scary skeletal outline for anyone in the romney campaign, interested in the romney campaign is this, that the obama campaign for reelection, you're never going to find that kind of story appearing anywhere at any time. it's not going to happen. >> that's again the difference. >> before you sit down with joe and i to do the final version -- >> seriously, the obama team would never do this, and other -- i couldn't even imagine

this happening in george w. bush's campaigns in 2004, 2008, jeb's campaign, whoever leaked it would be fired that day, and mitt romney would do very well to fire somebody here. speaking of this process being early, a lot of people are looking in these florida polls saying, oh, it's the bitter end for newt gingrich. not even close. the delegates are being rewarded proportionately. you're moving to the south, you're going to have a lot of states where gingrich can do well in march. february's going to be tougher, but this race has only just begun, regardless of what happens tomorrow. >> and he definitely wants to stay in it, at least, that's what he's saying despite trailing mitt romney in the latest polls, newt gingrich says the republican presidential race is far from over. the former house speaker insists the conservative base is still looking for the right candidate. and he'll state in the fight for as long as it takes to prove he's the man for the job. >> so this race is going to go on.

the conservatives clearly are rejecting romney. he is nowhere near getting a majority. and the fact is once you get beyond florida, these are all proportional representation statesment and he's not going to be anywhere a majority by april. this will go on all the way to the convention. clearly the conservatives and grass roots are increasingly angry about the washington establishment has rallied with complete dishonesty. and i think that deepens -- the conservatives are going to come together and decide they do not want a massachusetts liberal to be the republican nominee. >> so, joe, is he right, first of all? is the base still confused and still searching? >> well, the republican establishment and the conservative base are confused. and you can't really blame them because, it'd be like if your dad said, i'm going to let you buy your first car, and you've got two choices. you can get this classic corvette, it's exciting, but here's the deal, you get in it,

and i've got to warn you, you go over 30 miles an hour and it blows up, but it's a thrill ride for a little while. >> let me guess what car that is. >> or i've got for you a completely reworked is the 87 baby blue topaz, bucket seats -- >> a gremlin. >> and shag carpet. it's -- >> shag carpet? >> it goes 40 miles an hour, it doesn't go much faster, but you know what? it's dependable, you pick. okay. the republican base doesn't know whether to go with a flashy corvette that blows up or the topaz. there are two choices that are less than appealing. so every time romney does well, the topaz, of course. people start going, you know what? that corvette was looking good, i'll take the chance. and then they get in the corvette, no, i want to live to my 21st birthday.

>> exactly, exactly. >> i want to ask a question -- >> i've never heard of a car with shag carpet. >> let me ask you a question, though t. what happens when the delegates looking at the cars come out of their home in the morning and that are corvette has been towed? >> exactly. >> that could happen too. >> or it's got a boot on it. >> this is -- this is for the base, it's head versus heart right now. and not a lot of good choices. >> looking ahead to the road ahead, next weekend is the nevada caucus, and following tuesday voters in colorado, minnesota, missouri place their votes. in march, washington republicans vote on the 3rd and 11 states will hold their primaries on march 6th, super tuesday. >> john heilemann in alabama, mississippi, louisiana, you also of course -- >> georgia. >> georgia on super tuesday, texas probably early april. newt gingrich could make a swing through the south and not win.

but if ron paul does some well in some -- he'll win those states, ron paul does well in caucus states, suddenly gingrich can say as he's saying now, mitt romney may not get a majority at the convention. >> yes, and i think he will say that. and he's got to figure out a way to get through february. and newt gingrich's friend in february is going to be ron paul who is already in these caucus states, he's in nevada, up in maine, going to be in colorado. he's going to keep the fight with romney going because he's got good caucus organizations. and so romney will not -- he'll obviously win michigan. there'll be a way for gingrich to tread water for february, camp out in the south, and have resources and wait for romney to get through that good month of romney's point of view of february and then become kind of the regional candidate from the south of conservatives and start taking big chunks of delegates in a lot of those big, southern states. you know. a lot of candidates when they're

losing say things like, i'll fight until the end. we will fight all the tway to te end. newt gingrich is angry enough at mitt romney and the establishment. and he has enough of a base in the south among conservatives that he can fight all the way till -- to tampa or at least all the way till june and really be a problem for romney. >> and also, jon huntsman is looking forward four years, just like romney in '08. gingrich is 68 years old, he's had a national name since 1978, he's got a guy worth $22 billion that's writing checks for him that can keep him going, and you get into the right states like south carolina, and newt's going to do well. and, in fact, it sounds counterintuitive, but a big mitt romney win here will have the conservative base reflexively jerking back like they did after iowa going, do we really want

this guy? this massachusetts moderate who went just like the gingrich win got some of these same people reflexively going the other way going i'm not ready for gingrich either. this is a mess for the republican party. you have two candidates the base considered flawed. and in the end, willie geist, that's just good news for barack obama. >> you mentioned shelly edelson, where is newt gingrich going to get the money? he has made this clear it's a cause. he's investing in a cause. newt gingrich may not win, but he's willing to write checks and he's got $22 billion to keep the train rolling. one guy. >> pocket change for you. >> mike barnicle, you keep your mouth shut. we're going to break. >> to add to your list about newt. he has an ax to grind. >> i'm sorry. you had the baby. >> coming up live from miami beach -- this is ridiculous.

we'll bring in congresswoman ileana. up next, mike allen is right here in the delhi with us with politico's top stories of the morning. but first, let's go to bill karins in new york with a check on the forecast. bill? unbelievable. good morning, mika, good morning, everyone. hope you had a wonderful weekend. anybody wondering about the primary forecast in florida. it's florida, it's beautiful. sunshine, 70s and 80s. no problem. maybe a shower in key west. that's not going to stop anyone from getting out and doing what they want to do. forecast, actually, we can't complain in the rest of the country. i can't be too jealous there, it's mild everywhere. only the cold air is up in canada. and it's going to stay there all week long. areas like d.c. could be in the 60s by tomorrow. forecast today, snow showers up there in the northern plains from wisconsin up to michigan today. maybe a few snow showers in massachusetts. but look at this forecast. denver 62, kansas city, mid-60s, same for you in st. louis today.

much of the nation's enjoying a fabulously mild winter. and it's going to continue until the beginning of february. who knows, maybe it'll never show up. you're watching "morning joe" brewed by starbucks. gomery and abigail higgins had... ...a tree that bore the most rare and magical fruit. which provided for their every financial need. and then, in one blinding blink of an eye, their tree had given its last. but with their raymond james financial advisor, they had prepared for even the unthinkable. and they danced. see what a raymond james advisor can do for you. i have to be a tree in the school play. good. you like trees.

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i felt energy just up there on the stage. it could not have been better. the first debate, of course the audience was quiet. and speaker gingrich said that threw him off. he can't debate before a quiet audience. then the next audience was very loud, very loud. and he said that threw him off. he can't debate before a loud audience. it's like goldie locks, it has to be just so. he's now finding excuses everywhere he can. he's on tv this morning going from station to station complaining about what he thinks

for the reasons he's had difficulty here in florida. but you know, we've got a president who has a lot of excuses and the excuses are over. it's time to produce. >> all right. hey, welcome back to "morning joe." live from -- well, this is my state. the people love me -- wait a second. hey, where's my sign? this is my state. >> i'm sorry. >> no, that was very sweet. >> thank you. >> you kind of wonder who would stay up all night making a sign. you have big fans for you here, they love you. >> go to willie. >> we're live seriously at the epicenter of a florida campaign. candidates will be sweeping up and down south beach trying to pick up those final last votes -- >> pick up -- >> that's the way -- >> if you can win that delano vote or the shore club vote, it's a path to 1600 pennsylvania avenue. >> no question. >> mike allen's with us.

chief white house correspondent. >> wow, what a tan you have. >> mike allen washed up on the beach early this morning. >> he's been out at the clubs. >> i brought something in. >> yes, you did. yes, you did. >> what? >> the babies -- >> oh, the baby. i've got to get him back. >> we know it's been a long night. >> his pupils are dilated. do you need a pacifier? >> i've got the glow stick. talking about the obama administration already getting ready for the fall fight, preparing to fight for the hispanic vote here in the state later this year. >> if you win florida, you almost certainly win the presidency. our focus group back here which includes burger billions, bunch of obama voters back there and they say the steps the president's taking with hispanic voters are already paying off. the obama campaign while the

republicans are getting all the attention, have been doing a lot of things to help with immigration. there's no big immigration bill, but the president's doing things he can do through the administration. they're making it easier for people to travel back to mexico. relaxing some requirements. using that we can't wait program to help with the hispanic -- this hasn't gotten a lot of attention, but is big in the hispanic media. they're having reporters into the white house. >> so you guys also have an article up about newt's long road forward. he's not going to be getting out after florida. he's not going to be getting out after michigan. he's taking this all the way to the convention. >> well, you're right about that, and he has a very specific plan for doing it. like he thinks these march months are very favorable to him. he thinks there's a ton of information about mitt that has not been processed yet. and he's going to keep putting it out. and why not? this is newt's last stand. and he has a big audience he

thinks that mitt is not responding to the tea party, he's wrong for the times, and he's going to keep doing it. the energy is so far down, his events. john was talking about that event with 42 people. a week ago he had 4,000. >> what about the money question? we were talking about this in our last segment. shelly ettleson has shown a willingness to write the checks. how long will that continue? will he stay with him? if not, where will the money come from? >> shelton ettleson is plugged into the establishment. and the republicans are going to say to newt, the game is up. there's going to be huge pressure on him to not further it. and the romney campaign will keep after them. they think they made a big mistake in south carolina by switching to obama. so they're keeping the boot on the throat of newt. yesterday we were at a mitt romney event in pompano,

florida. it's all going to savaging newt. they want to destroy newt here so he doesn't carry out his plan to stay in. >> wow. they may destroy him in the state of florida, and looks that way from the polls, but they can't destroy him in georgia, mississippi, and louisiana. he's going to hang around for those states. >> they're going to leave that job to him. >> and you can't in this race, you can't mathematically clinch the nomination until april. so on paper, newt gingrich has an opportunity for a long time. and that's why -- >> and what happens if you get to march? because i don't think a lot of people are going to be focused on these february contests. but suddenly in march, people wake up and see newt's won georgia, alabama, mississippi, louisiana, he's won tennessee, he's won oklahoma, he may even win texas. i mean, you get to that point and even if mitt romney ends up winning this nomination, which i think most people believe he

will, newt can take it to the end, 1976 where reagan took ford all the way to the convention. and that spells doom for the party. ted kennedy in 1980 outshining jimmy carter, never good news. >> also in '92 where pat buchanan was not going to win. he was a huge presence against president h.w. bush. when you look at it on paper. for a long time, both newt gingrich and ron paul also are going to be mathematically viable, which is going to give them a lot of cards to play when it comes to getting speaking spots at the convention and getting other stuff out of romney. >> can i ask you a question about that? it seems to me that newt gingrich is a unique candidate in that he depends on oxygen and sunlight to survive. the oxygen of a campaign or debate, sunlight and exposure off of that campaign. he's going to go dark literally speaking for the next three weeks. >> right. >> he's going to be on the disabled list.

how does he survive after that? with no exposure? >> well, i mean -- if i'm newt gingrich, the first thing i do is -- i say today i know i'm going to get beaten pretty badly tomorrow. i'm going to write my speech for tomorrow night, and it's not going to be bitter like iowa was and i'm not going to be angry like i was in new hampshire, i'm going to give a great speech that's going to be optimistic, going to talk about the long road ahead and this is just one step back and be positive. and then use february to marshal my resources, to prepare for the march onslaught and basically say these february races, whatever. because americans focus in january, they're not going to be focusing so much in february on this race because they're tired of the 87 debates. >> yeah. >> but then march is going to start, super tuesday, oh, i know super tuesday, that's a big

thing. again if newt wins georgia, alabama, mississippi, tennessee, louisiana, oklahoma, texas, suddenly he can make a claim that he's the hot candidate. >> so in other words, tomorrow night he's going to fake it? >> he needs to, like every politician has to fake it when they lose. >> is there anybody that has the leverage to tell newt, look, this is about honor? >> no, he's 68, he's newt, anybody that comes up to him and says back down, he can go, hey, let me ask you this, how many revolutions have you run? how many times have you taken a party out of the wilderness after a generation? get out of my face. i mean, if i'm newt right now, i would be angry at the entire conservative base this past week revolted against me and go, okay, what exactly happened in -- what has mitt romney done for your cause? and so, i don't think anybody has the leverage. i think, actually, it's sheldon

really more than anyone else. that's the lever the romney people want to campaign. but i don't think he's going to do it. >> mike allen, the king of the south beach club scene. >> oh, yes. great crowd. >> thanks, mike. much more ahead on "morning joe," live here at south beach, just up the road from us, lebron james yesterday put on a show reminded us why he's the real star of this town. a highlight reel and a great game with highlights when we come back. so, this is delicious

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hey, welcome back to "morning joe." look at this scene. >> such a nice crowd. >> a lot of people stayed up, willie, all night. going to sign shops, local sign shops, just to show how they felt about florida's own

favorite son coming home. show your napkin. show the napkin, t.j. >> t.j.? >> see, i'm big here, willie. i'm big. >> huge. >> i, of course, wrote that myself and then gave it to her. >> thank you. >> we had to pay her $20. your check's on the way. >> thank you. very much. big sports in miami, and lots to cheer about lately. miami heat, lebron james playing great this season. they hosted the bulls right here in miami last night, yesterday afternoon, actually. in the first quarter, dwyane wade gives it up to lebron for a two-handed dunk, and to lebron again. look at the replay how high he gets. teed up in the first half. derek rose takes it all the way to the bucket. bulls down just one, he led them all the way back in the back and forth game, fourth quarter another beautiful play by rose, banks it in, ties it at 84. rose had 34 points, five seconds left of the game, rose takes the final shot, up short, and also

missed a couple of free throws a few moments before that, the heat hang on to win 97-93, miami has won four straight. for those of you who had nothing else to do whatsoever last night, the pro bowl was on. here's why we're showing. >> this is the blue/gray game. >> the star of the show, miami's own brandon -- well, miami dolphin's own set a pro bowl record with four touchdowns including that ridiculous catch passing the rookie quarterback, knocked around by two nfc defensive backs. 176 yards, four touchdowns representing miami and the dolphins. afc wins a tight one, 59-41. >> when are you going to point out to people that it's not the miami marlins and they have a spectacular new baseball -- >> have you seen that ballpark? >> spectacular. >> it's a beast. >> let me tell you, for the

4,531 people that show up as they're going down the stretch to win the pennant and the break the 27 yankees' records, it's going to be great for them. >> yeah, if they win the world series, plenty of good seats available. >> you think they'll break 10,000 for game seven? >> depends on the weather. you've got the retractable roof. >> i've got to say, the rays obviously not a big fan because they get in the way of the red sox every year. but you've got to love them, you've got to respect them. and yet no club is treated as badly by their base as the tampa bay rays. they're a great team and do great things year in and year out and the fans don't support them. >> model franchise, very few fans. >> what about the australian open? >> did you see the australian open. >> that's all mika was talking about yesterday up in washington. >> do you have the -- yeah, it was an epic final. two player, top two players in

the world battling. the longest grand slam singles final in the history of professional tennis. in the end it was -- >> mike barnicle did that outside. >> just 20 minutes ago. >> i don't get that. >> he took over the top ranking last year, he's now won the past three grand slam tournament titles, yochovich. >> hey, mike, don't do that after the show. >> well, shell caught me on the sidelines with my shirt off just before we came in. >> well, you've been showing enough skin according to the tweets out there. >> we buttoned it up. >> michael steele joins us here for the must-read opinion pages. you're watching "morning joe" live from south beach. ♪

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a smarter way to work with your pnc advisor, so you can make better decisions and live achievement. time is not newt gingrich's friend because the more time he has, the more he talks. and the more he talks, the more he says things as he just did here this morning. he said, i'd love to be civil, but i'm running against a maniacal liar. now, that's pretty strong language. i don't know if you've ever told longfellow's nursery rhyme to your 4-year-old. there's a little girl that had a little curl in the middle of her forehead. when she was very good, she was good indeed, and when she was bad, she was horrid. and we're at the horrid stage with newt gingrich. >> well, that's one way to put it.

>> we will pin him down as undecided. >> he points out what you pointed out in your column. >> which is what? >> wide swings. >> well, there's good newt, there's bad newt. >> it's not just good and bad, it's really bad. >> well, come on. >> or really strangely -- all right. here with us now and he's looking very miami. i don't know. msnbc political analyst and former chairman of the republican national committee, michael steele. >> who has -- >> yeah. >> back -- >> this is the one -- >> we've got a new series going. we're doing miami vice two for assisted living. >> exactly right. >> i love it. >> not going to work. that's going to work. that's going to be great. all right. >> must-read op-eds. >> the truth in numbers by robert samuelson in the washington post.

the super rich have now become political props. by all means, congress should pass the buffett tax. for starters, don't pretend as obama does that taxing the ultra rich would solve the deficit problem. so raise tax rates on warren buffett and others to upper middle class levels, but recognize that the anti-wealthy populist rhetoric is mostly political expediency, distracts from the serious issue the country faces creating jobs and closing long-term budget deficits. the anti-rich backlash is growing. a pew poll shows 76% of americans see conflict up from 47% in 2009. pandering to this is easier than dealing with the future, and i would ask you, joe, do you really think it's pandering? >> of course it is. >> to try and help alleviate the disparity. >> okay. first of all, if you believe that just raising taxes on the rich -- >> i don't. and i don't think the president does. >> the fact is -- it's like

people saying, oh, our economy's terrible because of free trade, because we're shipping jobs to china, because -- it ignores the reality of the situation. we are in a new age. we are in a new technological age. we have lost -- we've lost 1/3 of all manufacturing jobs over the past ten years. it's not because of the super rich, it's because computers have made us super productive, and the bottom line of it is. you can keep talking tax the rich, tax the rich, tax the rich. and fine, if it makes you feel good, keep talking about tax the rich, it won't solve a single problem. >> michael steele, just like a republican, joe is saying that the president's saying that's the only way to solve the problem, and it's not, it's one of the things he wants to do, plus create jobs. >> the corner stone of solving the problem. >> do you not think the disparity we're seeing is not a fundamental problem? >> absolutely. i think the numbers show that over the last 10 to 15 years, maybe in 20 years there's been a

growth in disparity between those who have and those who have less. the problem is, and this goes to the point that joe and a lot of others have been making and myself included over the last six or seven months, this is the corner stone of the president's argument. this is the class warfare argument emerging in the numbers. and you're beginning to see. when you go from 47% to 60% now saying that, you know, yeah, we should be coming after the rich guys, i mean that sort of sets up this argument that they're the ones that are going to solve our problems if we get more out of their pocket. >> if you come to me and say, you know, it's not right that the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer, which we all agree about it and talk about it. and i want to raise taxes on the rich because it makes me feel better. i'll go, okay, that's fine, but if you come to me and say raising taxes on the rich is going to balance the budget, like samuelson says, it doesn't -- >> this is a wonderful ploy on your part. >> no, if you're also saying let's raise taxes on the rich because it's going to make the

rich a little less rich and make the poor a little more wealthy, that's actually false too. you know, mike barnicle, this past week tom friedman wrote a column about how average just isn't going to cut it anymore. and tom talked about how over the past decade, we actually lost more manufacturing jobs than we gained over 70 years. again, i don't just say this to liberals that are saying tax the rich, tax the rich, tax the rich. i say this to populist who say protectionism, protectionism, protectionism. we are victims -- and we have been since 1973, 1974, of much larger forces that have little to do with tax rates and have little to do with the chinese stealing our jobs. >> well, one of the things we are certainly victims of -- and i hate the word victim in this sense. but we've been victimized for 25 or 30 years by a political process geared to people running

every two years, every six years, every four years rather than thinking 10, 20 years down the road. we have been victimized by shortsightedness in the political system that has road blocked tax reform, road blocked a whole bunch of things. >> hold on, john heilemann, no one else speak. it's not as michael steele says the cornerstone of the president's argument, and it's not as joe says the only thing he wants to do to solve the problem. i think this is a silly, argumentative ploy to make it look like the president is se y solely focused on one thing to deal with the disparity as well as jobs. >> i've never heard the president say taxing the rich will solve the problem. and what i've heard the president say is that we need greater fairness in the tax code. and the tax code currently is unfair and we should have more equity. i think that's true. and it's not going to solve the long-term economic problems of the united states or the budget deficit, but it is going to introduce a greater degree of equity in the tax code, which

has gotten really badly out of whack benefitting the rich and super rich. >> you're a very good litigator -- >> not a fact. coming up, chris matthews is here, "morning joe" live in miami. we'll be right back. [ female announcer ] goodnight gluttony, a farewell long awaited. goodnight, stuffy. goodnight, outdated. goodnight old luxury and all of your wares. goodnight bygones everywhere. [ engine turns over ] good morning, illumination. good morning, innovation. good morning unequaled inspiration. [ male announcer ] the audi a8, chosen by car & driver as the best luxury sedan in a recent comparison test.

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♪ welcome back inside jerry's famous deli here in south beach. chris matthews will be with us in a second. first, we want to talk to some voters. tracy, why romney? >> well, i think he has great business background and i think he's going to be the most electable. >> did you ever consider newt gingrich? >> not really, no. >> why romney? >> i'm all for romney. i think he succeeded in everything he's done, whether it's running the business, whether it's the olympics, being elected governor in the bluest of blue states. i think he's done well and a sharp contrast from president obama. and i think the american people are going to have a clear choice. >> what do people of florida and you've talked to think of newt gingrich? >> i think we're great for -- speaking as a republican, i think we're grateful for what he did in '94. and we think he's dropped the ball a couple of times and he's not as electable, bottom line. and speaking with more of the

moderate voters, they're not going to vote for him. and it's about winning. >> frank, tracy, thank you so much. when you hear the salsa music, you know it's time for chris matthews, the great island man. >> is this brazil? are we in brazil? >> we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ what started as a whisper every day, millions of people choose to do the right thing. there's an insurance company that does that, too. liberty mutual insurance. responsibility. what's your policy? hey. did you guys hear...

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well, people dislike the democrats and the republicans more than they ever have. so i actually think the right independent could win. and there was a poll about an month ago, you saw it, where i was the number one independent choice. >> you're telling me you're really serious about it and you may depending on what happens you may get into this thing after all? >> i hope i don't have to. but i may, absolutely. the number one thing for me is this country. our country is in a lot of trouble. so i may. i hope i don't have to. >> all right. >> welcome back to "morning joe." >> look at that beautiful shot of jerry's famous deli. we are, of course, on south beach in miami because this is where we believe the candidates will spend their final 24 hours. >> this is a really cool place. i took my daughters here. it's a wonderful deli. >> it really is. >> john heilemann and michael steele are still with us. and joining the conversation, we have the host of msnbc's

"hardball," chris matthews. you remember his latest book is "jack kennedy: elusive hero." i see this book everywhere. >> three months on the best seller list. >> chris, every four years we hear that this campaign is going to be different from every other campaign. but we're finally seeing in 2012 all the old rules being broken. you win iowa and you win new hampshire, or one of the two or you're out. now, you've got newt gingrich who is going to get pounded most likely tomorrow night and florida. in the past, that would be the end of this campaign, but for newt, it's just the beginning because he's got the super pac money and he's got name i.d. with the base. so the old rules do not apply anymore, do they? >> you know, $16 million to destroy him down here. $16 million before, it's another one of these annihilation campaigns like we saw in iowa. and i just wonder if the republican party, the voters in

the party are happy with this system that allows one candidate to annihilate the other one with negative ads? and that's what's going on here again. i know newt blew the debates, but the real devastations going on in the paid ad campaign. it seems to me, as long as romney can go state to state and destroy him state to state, he's an exterminator. >> which by the way, chris, this is such an important point. because newt was destroyed in iowa. and by the way, i'm not here as a defender of newt, but i am here to talk about what's driving this process. mitt was ahead and romney's money destroyed him in iowa with negative ads. newt won south carolina and you're exactly right, he was nothing but 30-second spots, and some of newt's own problems that hurt him here. >> and i think the republican party is going to find itself where they're -- they can't vote for different people. so they end up voting for romney. he's like the only one there. it's not a positive campaign yet. it may become one, but there's no demand for romney, he's just

the last guy standing at this extermination -- >> what is -- >> oh, my gosh, chris. >> we don't want to knock romney here, he had a good debate performance. but let's be honest. the guy hasn't put forth big ideas. i don't care if he's robotic and mechanical. if he said, i am adopting the debt commission suggestion, bowles/simpson, if he said that. if he said i'm going to reform taxes, make them fairer and flatter, i'm going to take on entitlements, i'm going to get us out of -- >> something. >> big. i would say he may be stiff, but he believes in something, i'll get onboard, but he hasn't done that yet. >> and the only thing big that's come out of the campaign is exactly what chris has hit on, $16 million in negative advertising, not about promoting a positive message for the future of the country. what he's going to do as president, but what he's going to do to take down newt gingrich. it's great to take down newt

gingrich, but you still have to convince the rest of the base to come to you. those votes that are lost to newt, they're not going to romney. and so the question becomes further down the stretch here, when do you begin to get that base around you? and the big idea argument is one way to do that along with, again, the conservative credentials and making sure people understand where you're coming from. >> joe, you're saying something so important. and i dare to mention what my father said at the event yesterday with politics and pros. >> i wouldn't say it. >> well, okay. it was a room full of democrats, chris matthews, but they're sitting back and watching this show and not seeing much come out of the republican candidates that make them worry that obama might lose the next election. fair? >> this election is very much there. it's in front of us. this election hasn't happened, the voefters haventers haven't . this thing is wide open, this election. and this state, by the way, is going to be very tough for the

president to win. very tough. >> let's run through these polls very quickly. the new poll shows president obama beating each of the republican candidates in head-to-head match-ups. ron paul by 14 points, santorum by 15 points, and newt gingrich polls the furthest out losing by 17 points. in a new gallup poll shows mitt romney tied with president obama in key battleground states. as we remember a few months ago, the president was fairing horribly in the battleground states three, four, five months ago. things have turned around for barack obama. >> yeah, there's no question they have. and, you know, just to come back to your point about romney, i've spent the last -- all of these primary contests going around listening to romney. i go to a lot of the events. and forget outperformance, he just doesn't say anything. >> what's his big idea? >> the most consistent thing in his stump speech is the "america

the beautiful." it turns out if you have enough money on negative ads, you don't need a theme. it's very depressing. but my question for you, chris, about this, gingrich yesterday, you know, basically did what a lot of candidates do. you start looking to the next contest, start talking about how i'm going to fight on to florida, come back here to tampa. mitt romney can never get enough delegates to be a majority. the conservatives will still rally he can't be the nominee. what prospect do you give to gingrich being able to in the face of all this money, all this organization, everything else, gingrich being able to actually wage a fight that goes all the way through to june and then beyond to tampa and keep mitt romney from this nomination? >> well, he's going to need some help to deny him the 50%. you know, the other guys are going to have to get support too. romney, it's so much like -- not all of history being repeated. but it's like dewey in '48, he

had the election made until everybody realized he had nothing to say. what i do notice about romney i would worry about. he is learning how to debate. with the help of a very good team, he's putting together an ability to stand up to his rival and beat him in debate in an hour and a half setting and he can do it. he may win one of the three presidential debates and we never thought that possible a few weeks ago. >> there's no doubt and i see john agreeing and michael agreeing, romney has gotten much better at these debates. newt is making him much sharper candidate for this fall. let me ask you, chris, really quickly. this may be a little inside baseball, but unfortunately for republicans, it speaks to how little romney's own team respects him, that dump of information in the "new york times" yesterday, these advisers in the middle of a presidential campaign saying it wasn't our candidate's brilliance that made him grab the microphone and say

i paid for this microphone, mr. green. no, it was us. it was the consultants lined up and said we had to save mitt because he's such a terrible candidate, look at me. i'm a great op research guy. >> they've done a good job up until then. >> you know who it reminds me of? an nba championship game and they win the championship and the owners come out and take the trophy. >> yeah. exactly. very good. >> the guys standing around watching the owners take the award wait a minute, you're coming out for the trophy. >> well, usually they get fired after that. >> i'm telling you, somebody should be fired from the campaign for dumping that to the "new york times." >> all right. you've given them enough advice. >> this is a cardinal sin. >> it is. >> the thing is, a campaign is all about getting the candidate over the finish line. this was all about advisers going to the "new york times"

saying, look at us. >> it was bad. >> look what we did. we're so smart. we had to drag a crappy candidate over the finish line. we are so brilliant. >> if anything, they should have said even if they were behind it, my gosh, he stormed in the room and said i'm going to do it my way and went off and, my gosh, this guy has turned his own campaign around, and we're lucky to be on it. >> these are the same guys with five years to prepare mitt romney for the tax question. >> right. >> and they fumbled that so badly that if i were them, i would keep my mouth shut. >> they might want to keep their mouths shut. >> this is a key why they need -- >> the "new york times" now, michael? >> not that they read the "new york times," but that gets out on the ether net, the stuff people know. >> i will guarantee you charles krauthammer and even chris christie, the people that matter in this party, bill crystal,

erick erickson, looking at that and going, this confirms our worst suspicions, he's an empty suit. >> yeah. >> tip o'neill once said, i had worked for him when he was speaker, and if any story ran about me a couple times it did, he would confront me, this big guy and say you running for something? >> exactly, get out of the way. >> which told you all you needed to know. >> he would tell me things like i've got more political brains in half my part of his body than -- >> which part of his body was that? >> he was very clear on the subject of who the brains were. >> having settled that -- >> -- on the romney campaign? >> i think somebody needs to explain who the campaign is for. i do. >> does somebody need to be fired? >> yeah, absolutely. you don't do that. >> some people at home don't understand it, it's all about the candidate. and mitt romney's about to win a huge victory in florida. and his own people have undermined him. >> you've upstaged the candidate

pretty bad. >> and chris matthews knows this, they set -- reagan in '80, this staff set up that nashua moment. they knew reagan was walking into a hostile gym, they know they blind sided george h.w. bush. and afterwards, you didn't have all of reagan's people running out there. >> it was like a line from the movie, it was state of the union, a guy running against harry truman in the movie. and the exact lines, except reagan blew the guy's name. >> i'll give you another example, john kennedy, you know this story very well. john kennedy doesn't do well in wisconsin. he goes to west virginia in the 1960 primary. and after a catholic wins west virginia, teddy white said this is amazing. they're so open-minded. and what was the cynical remark behind the scenes to teddy white?

yeah, they're very open minded when you're paying ever sheriff and every county commissioner tons of cash. but that never got in the paper. it was all about kennedy's brilliance. that's what you have to do. it's about the candidate. it's not about -- >> it's about working with the campaign and executing well and -- having said all that, president obama's reelection team is focusing on mitt romney. predicting that he will be the republican nominee next fall. take a listen. >> so what did governor romney do that's unfair? >> i'm not saying he doesn't play by the rules. the rules allow you to have swiss bank accounts, to put your money in the cayman islands and so on. the rules allow all of that. the question is, are the rules right? he would continue those rules. they are not right. it's not right that someone like governor romney can make $20 million $22 million and pay an effective tax rate lower than the average middle class person in this country. not at a time, david, when we

have all of these needs. >> john heilemann, americans didn't care that ted -- or that jack kennedy was rich. they didn't care that roosevelt was rich, didn't even care that john kerry was rich in '04. but mitt romney has given the obama team so many buzz words, swiss bank account, cayman islands -- >> taxes. >> i like firing people. 14%. let the market bottom out. pink slips, i know what it's like -- you could go on and on. he has set himself up for a november killing. >> he's the 1%. >> he's painted -- i've said it before on the show. a combination of gordon gekko and ritchie rich. it's a bad image. the thing that david axelrod is hitting on here, the focus on him -- the tax issue is not remotely past romney at this point. this tax issue may be past him in florida. but, you know, why mitt romney

has not released more than these past two years of these tax returns. what is in those ten years of tax returns that he has not released that he gave over to the mccain campaign in 2008 that are on the shelf that he hasn't turned in. how much -- >> i'm going to be argumentative. but i think it's a fair question to ask. why would they care that -- >> hold on a second. why would they care that mitt romney paid a 14.3% tax on his income when john kerry paid a 13.1% tax on his income and he had more money than mitt romney. >> who is they? >> well, the american people. how many americans went to the voting booth and said i'm not voting for john kerry -- let me tell you who they is. let's say the national media like you. how many times did you bring up john kerry's 13.1% tax rate in 2004? >> i don't -- all i'm trying to tell you is that -- you going to let me answer? >> is that two? how many times did you bring it up? >> how many times did i bring it

up? >> yeah. >> possibly none. >> all right. >> that's not what i'm talking about. what i'm trying to say is, there's a question of what is in those tax returns. the democratic party i'm telling you as a reporter is focused on the question of why he's not releasing those tax returns and what's in them. hypothetically, if those tax returns come out and there is a vast amount of cayman island swiss bank accounts that adds up to something that looks like an aggressive strategy of tax avoidance, the democrats are going to hit that issue very hard. >> chris matthews, his problem is this -- there were a couple of years because, you know the markets go up and the markets go down. where he probably paid zero. paid no taxes. so here you can have a guy worth hundreds of millions of dollars that's going to be the ge candidate. i think i'm just guessing that's what they're afraid of because that's what happens when you're dealing in markets and capital gains, sometimes you make lots, sometimes -- >> that's where --

>> sometimes you're in trouble. >> suppose it comes out and the word shelter hasn't been used in a while. he sheltered the money in the cayman islands, exhibit a, he's the problem, not the solution. >> you're talking about something that you've lumped two things together. ordinary income, which is what everybody in this room makes and investment income, which is what we're talking about with romney. and they are taxed differently in our system. but the democrats have been very effective about lumping the two together. and it goes back to the front page of the "new york times." instead of putting their stuff on the front page of the "new york times," they should have spent time in the room framing this argument so when you walked out on the street you wouldn't have people thinking there's this one glob of income when there's not, number one, but more importantly, what does this mean in the overall economy? and what does that investment income do to create jobs and keep the economy going? >> just come back when you said about ten minutes ago. romney's got to grab control of this election.

if it's about division of the spoils, he loses because he's the big spoil grabber. if it's about building the american future, what we have another great century, will america be the great power, a great country 100 years from now? are we building a bigger pie? are we going to argue about how we divide it up? if it's about building a bigger pie, or bigger future, republicans can win. and if the economy suffers a slight -- >> what about romney? what's the big idea. >> if this economy begins to fall late summer, the issue will be the size of the pie not how it's divided up. romney's got to prepare himself for the economy dropping a little bit and then hep w wins. >> if this election is primarily about mitt romney, and mitt romney probably loses the election. if this primary election is about barack obama, mitt romney has a chance. and this is why all the stuff we've been discussing, whatever you think about the fairness of some of these issues, as long as the obama campaign can keep the focus on mitt romney and his foibles, that is where they want

to be. >> mika, this is the number one rule in politics and the number one rule as a trial lawyer. if you have bad news, get it out at the beginning of the trial. >> that's right. >> and then give the people time to digest it through the week or two-week trial, because by the time you're doing your closing argument, that's factored in. if mitt romney -- and again, i'm just guessing this, if mitt romney had a couple years where he paid 0% in taxes and he is the ge candidate, if that comes out now, he's got a year to try to work around it. if that comes out in september or october, game over. >> absolutely. and michael steele, you talked about people making an ordinary income, how about the people not making the income they used to be making who are hanging on to their jobs, mitt romney should want this out the door behind him by march. >> nothing illegal about what he did -- >> no, but get it over with. not just a rule in court, how

about in life? be transparent and don't lie. still ahead, live from jerry's famous deli. florida congresswoman ilian that ros-lehtinen stops by the set. also, we'll bring in nbc's chuck todd and peter alexander to talk about the final day of campaigning before tomorrow's vote. you're watching "morning joe" brewed by starbucks live in miami. ♪ ♪ let's go ♪ ♪ cruise like a norwegian ♪

until the end of the quarter to think about your money... ♪ that right now, you want to know where you are, and where you'd like to be. we know you'd like to see the same information your advisor does so you can get a deeper understanding of what's going on with your portfolio. we know all this because we asked you, and what we heard helped us create pnc wealth insight, a smarter way to work with your pnc advisor, so you can make better decisions and live achievement. a smarter way to work with your pnc advisor, [music playing] confidence. available in color. depend® for women is now peach. looks and fits like underwear. same great protection. depend®. good morning. great day. i was strong before weight watchers, but i'm stronger with it.

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some of your advisers spoke on the record about the turn around in momentum. and here's how the writers summed it up after talking with them. if mr. romney does win here on tuesday it will been through a blistering and unrelenting series of attacks.

his campaign has pressed everything at its disposal into service to eviscerate mr. gingrich painting him as an erratic unreliable washington insider in mailings and television advertisements and two critical debates here. and even by sending supporters to mock him at his own events. what's your response to that assessment? >> well, there's no question that politics ain't bean bags, and we have made sure that our message is out loud and clear. the speaker has been attacking me all over the state in ways that are really extraordinary in some respects painful to watch because it's so revealing of him. and, you know, the fact is that he worked with hundreds of people in washington. and only a handful of those people are willing to support him. ♪ >> hey, welcome back to "morning joe." >> 24 past the hour, we've got john heilemann, chris matthews, michael steele, and max with us.

and here in -- >> wait a second. chuck todd -- >> oh, i thought you were talking about max. >> why is chuck todd not in miami with us? >> i don't know. >> as chuck todd knows, over the next 24 hours -- the universe is right here on south beach. >> chuck, we're here for you. we came here, we were looking for you. what's going on? >> other than congress warm ros-lehtinen, have you found an actual republican on south beach? i'm just saying. >> no, i can't find one anywhere i like. also with us, nbc's peter alexander is here in miami, as well. peter, thanks for joining us. why don't we go through some of the latest polls with chuck todd, first of all. looks like mitt romney has this locked in. we're talking about the dynamics down the road. newt gingrich is talking about taking this to the long haul. it's a difficult state to get your arms around.

>> well, it is, and the poll numbers we can show you here, which is, of course, romney up 15%, he's got a 2 to 1 advantage over those that have already voted. and by the way, for all the folks wondering about if santorum weren't in there, well, if you take the santorum second choice candidates and recalculate, romney's lead actually technically grows by a point, 49%, 33%. this isn't a conservative. i think what we see here is the ten-day campaign of unrelenting negative attacks on newt gingrich both in the air, $16 million spent by romney's or romney's super pac negative. plus what they did on the trail, plus they did at the debates took an effect to make gingrich not just unelectable in this primary but as unacceptable as a potential nominee and that's what we saw in our poll numbers. >> chris matthews? >> thanks. chuck, is romney getting more popular? or is he simply annihilating his

chief opponent? >> well, i think that's what we're going to find out, i think, in the next six weeks. right now i think he's simply annihilating gingrich. and i think he's -- i do think he's been helped personally by showing an aggressiveness as sort of alpha dog aspect to himself in the debates. because that has been an issue in our own poll, more republicans tell us they still think gingrich would be a better debater against president obama than mitt romney. but i do think that when you see some of the -- the fact that he's crossing that 40% threshold. that's a -- not just a -- you can't just sit here and say florida republicans are somehow holding their nose or something and supporting romney. it's a substantial lead. a substantial number. and if he gets that tomorrow night, it's hard to imagine him not becoming the nominee. the question is, how long does newt gingrich keep going? >> all right, but chuck, here's the problem again. florida politics, they're not holding their nose, but as chris

matthews said, mitt romney spent $16 million destroying newt gingrich. >> right. >> it reminds me of another politician, the guy named rick scott, ran enough 30-second ads to destroy bill mccolough. this may help you win one contest, but in the long run, if you don't define yourself you find yourself in rick scott's position. >> well, that's right. joe, you and i talked about that yesterday with david on "meet the press." this idea that romney has fixed the newt problem for now, but they still haven't fixed their mitt problem. and when you look at the overall nbc/"wall street journal" poll, the most important number on there is 31%, 36%, that's mitt romney's personal rating, that's upside down. he can't afford newt gingrich to sit here and stay in this primary fight, which frankly, if you're newt, you have plenty of incentive to stay in. because as you pointed out, joe,

the establishment has sort of been a back and forth here. after iowa, the establishment rallied around romney. after new hampshire, the anti-establishment rallied around newt. now we've got the rally around romney. you've got to think there's one or two more rally around newts coming at least to see what happens on super tuesday when the primary season turns south. that said, i think february is going to be a rough month for newt with very few debates and very few winnable contests. >> let's go to peter alexander. peter alexander, i'm going to throw you the big question. >> reporter: please. >> what are you doing in miami? >> what's going on? >> reporter: it's a good question. i was hoping you could pick up my glow stick i think we left under the table from the big saturday night out. one of the more interesting poll questioned there, how many people rolled in 45 minutes before you got started today.

we've been chasing mitt romney around this state for the last week or so. he was almost hoarse when we heard him last night trying to yell over the cuban crowd. it almost cost him his voice. he did the "today" show this morning, and one of the clips this morning was about his reaction to that "new york times" article this weekend where the advisers in that article said things similar to what they've been telling us. and what romney said was sort of telling to have a way to dismiss them, by saying only advisers think the work of advisers is very, very important. but it did look like all the hard work had been done by the colleagues behind the scenes and mitt romney himself, as chuck said, hadn't done anything to help fix himself. >> isn't it fascinating that you've got jeb bush calling mitt romney up saying, hey, lay off the anti-immigrant talk, and yet you look at the nbc news marist poll, the crowds when you follow him around, looks like he's getting the hispanic vote in this republican primary.

>> reporter: yeah, that's what it appears to be showing. "the miami herald" yesterday endorsing mitt romney saying the feistier candidate may be newt gingrich, but the better candidate is mitt romney. it still does carry a lot of sway in the hispanic community in this part of the state. it's worth noting that almost 500,000 people have already voted. that's almost as many voted in all of south carolina. 462,000, i think, the number is that already voted by absentee or early voting. so this thing is well underway despite what the polls would suggest. even when he had a surge a couple days back, the people were already casting their votes. >> and the head-to-head match-ups between obama and romney and obama and gingrich. the party is still trying to figure this out. it could go beyond florida, could it not? >> almost guaranteed to go beyond florida.

when you look at the calendar. again, you're already hearing the gingrich campaign talk about there's less than 5% of all delegates, less than 10% of what you need is going to get chosen after tomorrow night. that's all factually correct. february, four caucuses, two primaries, one is in mitt romney's backyard in michigan. and then march is the march through the south. and, you know, if you're newt gingrich, you at least stick around until april 1 and go through that to see if you can get back your mojo in the south. but that's an awfully long time. and we know that basically gingrich's campaign is banking on one donor. and that's the ettleson household. and the question is, do they keep kicking in another $5 million chunk. if they do, i think gingrich definitely goes on. but again, what's the incentive? four years ago, mitt romney thought about putting his own money in to take it to john mccain to try to make the nomination go longer.

he decided not to do that because he thought, you know what? four years from now maybe i can be the nominee. that isn't -- there is no four years from now for newt gingrich. >> yep. and chris matthews, february's going to be mitt romney's month. >> yeah. >> and by the way, now would be a great time the day after you win florida to dump ten years of tax returns and deal with it because you know you're going to win throughout february. >> get it over with. >> but if you're gingrich in march and looking at that calendar and thinking i'm going to win georgia, i'm going to win alabama, i'm going to win mississippi, i'm going to win louisiana, i'm going to win tennessee, i'm going to win oklahoma, and i could win texas because -- i'm the southern candidate, first of all, and secondly, if there is a mormon problem, there's a mormon problem in the deep south. >> i think -- there's no reason for newt to get out of the race. >> one of the reasons he'll stay in is to make sure romney doesn't win the general election.

he doesn't want romney to win this election. he can beat the heck out of him for the next couple of months to make sure by the time he gets to november, he won't win. you think newt wants romney to be the next president? let's think it through. >> you're the one who said somebody said on our air that the clintons didn't vote for barack obama and caused this huge fire storm four years ago. and people said, how dare you say that? no, that happens every four years in both parties. and you're exactly right. newt decided half way through iowa, if i can't win, he's not going to win. >> you're not going to win -- because then you were wrong to run in the first place. the republican party has a real problem. they run people like bob dole way too late in their careers. after beating them, they ran mccain after beating him. and romney's going to have himself beat the hell out of by the time he faces obama. not just wait your turn, it's wait until you've been whooped a number of times and then they put you out there after you've been humiliated.

romney's not going to be so beaten up by his own party and the demands he show his tax returns again and again and again it's going to be fairly easy for obama to take him on, but it's going to depend on the economy. >> all right. the conversation continues. chuck todd and peter alexander, thank you very much. willie geist, where did you go? >> now that we've reached 7:30 in the morning, we've transitioned from club kids and strippers inside the place here to a more respectable crowd. we're going to be joined next by the republican congressman. the employee of the month isss... the new spark card from capital one. spark miles gives me the most rewards of any small business credit card. the spark card earns double miles... so we really had to up our game.

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welcome back to jerry's famous deli here in south beach. like rare animals in the everglad everglades, we found two republicans here in south beach. peggy, you're from weston? >> weston, florida. >> why mitt romney? >> well, first of all, i'm a cradle republican, and i believe in the republican platform. and, well, we have a lot of social issues, i think this time around it's not about social issues as much as it is what we're doing with our economy. and i think mitt romney has a

proven record. i worked on his election last time around, and the minute he announced his nomination for candidacy and stuff i said i'm for him. it's about economy. >> you're for romney, as well. did you give any thought to newt gingrich? >> not a bit. >> why not? >> honestly, sir, i don't trust him as far as i can throw him. >> why do you like mitt romney? >> i think he's a good man. i think with his history of being married as long as he has, good family, and values, i think he's a good businessman. i just think as successful -- financially secure he is, he's going to do something for our country. something that hasn't been done in years, not since reagan, thanks. >> and you think he's got a good shot to beat the president? >> yes, i do, i really do. i think he has an excellent shot. there's a few things we watched -- i watched all the, you know, the debates -- >> all 19 of them. >> yes, she did. >> so does my mom. >> recorded them. >> and i have to say i'm really

glad he came out -- he shouldn't apologize for his success because i think he -- it'll make us all successful under that leadership. >> i agree. >> peggy and mary, thanks for being with us. thanks for coming by so early. nice to meet you. >> pleasure to meet you. >> we'll be right back from jerry's famous deli. you know when i grow up,

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we had some rather unpleasant experiences with newt gingrich. and one of them was the government shutdown in 1995. and bob dole is one that finally called a halt to it because it was killing us. the american people rejected the idea of us shutting down the

government. my problems with newt have been over earmark spending, billions and billions and billions. when newt gingrich became speaker, they turned earmarks into an art form. >> i think the republican establishment believes it's okay to say and do virtually anything to stop a genuine insurgency from winning because they're very afraid of losing control of the old order. we tried a moderate in 1996 for president, he lost. we tried a moderate in 2008 for president, he lost. it's very hard to take romney care and obama care and have a debate and have the republican win that debate. you need to have a conservative who is a very big distance away from obama because you've got to have the space so that, in fact, you can communicate with the american people. >> look who's here, mika. >> i see who's here. >> my good friend, republican congresswoman from florida -- >> oh, yes.

>> ileana ros-lehtinen. one of my favorite moments in the debate while i was on the house floor. there was a moment when james -- >> uh-huh. >> from youngstown, ohio. >> i'm already worried about this story. >> gets up and he's wearing t s this -- speaking of shag carpet -- this jacket that looks like shag carpet and yells, mr. speaker! what's wrong with this picture? and ileana stands up and yells, your jacket? >> good for you. >> i learned not to mess with jim -- >> no. >> because he's got -- he had a following that -- and so that was not good. >> that's right. he still does. like blago. >> never do one minute remarks after him doing beam me up, mr. speaker. you're going to bomb. >> so i want to show the congresswoman a picture. i'd like to explain -- >> this has to do with rituals that -- that, well --

>> um. >> are unique to the state of florida. >> it's mitt romney, you, congresswoman -- >> what can i say? >> and a pig. >> this would not go over with the peta folks, but this is a -- you grill it, and they were doing it all day waiting for mitt romney to show up in hialeah. the most republican city in the united states. >> really? >> and it is coming up -- >> well, you look at that picture and mitt looks really -- >> members of congress and pork should not be associated together these days. >> right. >> you supported the guy right now with a knife in his hand, why do you support mitt romney? >> well, i think he's the most electable candidate, the one that could beat obama. i agree with his economic plan. i think he's great on the issues i care about. cuba and relations with the western hemisphere. but for me, electability is the

number one issue. i know he's getting hammered in these last days, that he's too moderate and you've heard all of those ads, they've been vicious. i don't mind those vicious ads. this is a democracy in action. i wish in my native homeland in cuba, people, candidates would be vying for office and they would get these harsh attacks, again, but we don't have that in cuba. >> what does he stand for? >> i think it's good for mitt to get attacked, it makes him a stronger candidate. >> what's his big idea? what's mitt romney's big idea? >> the economy. letting the private sector unleash its power and create the jobs. and i think down here when we have such a massive unemployment rate that's been bad every month, it's 35 consecutive months of bad unemployment, we want a new direction, a new vision, and i think mitt's got that vision. i know they're killing him with ads saying that he's made his money off of poor people, and they exaggerate that kind of wealth he's accumulated through

hard work. he didn't inherit his wealth. and i think in our community made up of so many minorities, we look at someone financially successful and say, yeah, that's a good thing. >> what is mitt's big idea to get people back to work? to stop the destruction of jobs in america? we've seen the manufacturing base collapse -- >> the anti-obama, which is to get certainty in the marketplace so that small business owners, whether you're from jerry's deli right here or anywhere will know that washington is not going to be cooking up more regulations for you. more tax plans, and there's a great sense of uncertainty when i go around my congressional district of little havana, miami beach, the keys, people are saying what's next? what are you guys going to do to us next? so certainty for the marketplace and for the small businessmen. less regulations, making sure that every new law that we pass

and every new regulation that we put in place, we take into account the real world impact of all that. and i think mitt has practical sense. >> there's a front page story in "the new york times" about jeb bush being a reluctant endorser. you know jeb well like i know jeb well. his endorsement would make a difference not just in florida but with conservatives across the country. why do you think jeb is reluctant to jump onboard and support mitt romney? >> i think jeb right now is looking at all of the candidates pulling their own weight making sure they are able to articulate their message. >> it's the florida primary. >> i don't want to be the king maker. let each candidate decide for themselves what the voters want and if he does come out to endorse a candidate, they'll say this guy thinks he owns florida. he thinks he's going to dictate to us. candidates are doing very well. i think the candidates are doing very well. they are sinking or swimming on their own. and jeb will come out for the

guy who comes out the victor in the nomination process. >> not necessarily mitt romney. >> he'll definitely be with mitt romney and mitt romney is going to carry florida and he's going to be our nominee and he's going to fight it until the end. i don't think that's bad. have it be a protracted primary. >> let's go from talking about presidential race to talking about the house. republicans really just walked into a trap at the end of the year. somehow we set ourselves up to geg against middle class tax cuts. we walked away from a great deal where the president was on the defensive. the deficit was about a trillion dollars in 2011. what's john boehner and the republican leadership do differently in 2012 that they didn't do in 2011 to make sure republicans have a better year legislatively? >> think they're going to his be more to freshmen republicans who have a clear vision of what they

want for economic direction for our country. we were set on our so-called plan and i think that we've got to listen to our freshmen guys and gals close to the front lines and they haven't been so sophisticated in washington ways. they just got there. they are hungry and lean. i think they're going to take us in the right direction. some people say they're tea party extremists. i don't think so. i think they are people who have the pulse of the public and we let them frame this debate against the rich guys, us and the little guys, the democrats. we have to change that. we have to change that. >> okay. >> congresswoman, great to see you. >> thank you so much. all right. >> thank you for coming. >> still ahead on "morning joe," we'll talk to eugene robinson live from miami beach. he has some dance moves he's going to show us. >> no, he does not. >> eugene. definitely. also, miami herald humor

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>> some people were standing up

saying we need to reform this system. speak eer gingrich was being pa to stand up and say these programs should continue the way they are. these institutions are fine. the people of florida have had enough of freddie mac and fannie mae and government interference. it's time to get back to free market principles. so, mr. speaker, your trouble in florida is not because the audience is too quiet or too loud or because you have opponents that are tough. your problem in florida is that you worked for freddie mac at a time that freddie mac was not doing the right thing for the american people and that you're selling influence in washington at a time we needed people to stand up for the truth in washington. >> welcome back to "morning joe." we have a great crowd here live from jerry's famous deli in miami beach.

joining us now, associate editor of "the washington post" and salsa dancer -- >> what? >> the dancing machine. >> he's going to show me how to do it. >> are you serious? >> i am? okay. >> i'll get you some music at the end of the segment and you just go for it. first, we'll talk about the candidates. we have a wonderful crowd here. a shout-out to mary's son, patrick. she's here. wonderful people. most adorable baby, max, waiting for me over there. can i get him back? >> no. >> then let's just look at the polls. the new polls out show mitt romney pulling away from speaker gingrich and the rest of the field. according to a poll released yesterday, romney leads newt by 15 points. another one shows romney up by 11 points over gingrich followed by rick santorum and ron paul.

it shows romney cleaning up in every subgroup of voters. he beat speaker gingrich by 21 points among women. nine points among men and the miami herald poll shows romney showing a lead among hispanic. romney leads gingrich by 24 points among hispanics. >> there was a column this last weaned about this race being historically volatile. the night of new hampshire, mitt romney goes out. he gives this soaring speech. conservatives say, maybe, just maybe we can put our arms around this guy and newt gingrich is angry and bitter. they go to south carolina. last saturday night. it was newt. looked like he was the candidate of the future. and mitt who was beaten down.

and now florida. a week later. it's all turned around again. why the volatility week in and week out in the gop? >> because the republican party is fractured. it's divided. >> still? >> among factions and because there is a consensus if there's consensus of the party on one thing, mitt romney is an okay candidate but is not a great candidate. they don't love him. they can't fall in love with this guy. so now florida is a big state. it's a megastate. so a win here, i think, means more than a win in new hampshire and does more for romney's prospects of wrapping this thing up. you know, newt willing. newt ain't willing yet. >> newt ain't willing yet. tell us michael steele, you were chairman of the republican party, why is it so hard for mitt romney to close the deal with the republican base?

we know he's probably going to win florida. but moving forward, newt is still going to be taking states off. >> it's a simple sales job. mitt has failed to make the deal to make the sale with the base. to let conservatives know that put in context his record in massachusetts as governor whether on health care or question of abortion to put into context the question and discussion we're having in the last segment about his wealth and how that plays out. he's never put himself in context of the conservative agenda so conservatives don't relate to him. you're getting numbers by tearing down the other guy. you're not selling yourself. that sound clip is men on the stage tearing down someone. he's not coming to the stage with a brand new bold idea to move the country forward. how am i contrasting myself to the president today, not in october, today. that's the run-up.

that's the buildup you need to put into place. he hasn't done that. we're still waiting and when you do it, maybe it will all click but you can't have it click in september. it has to click now. >> there's something i don't understand about what's happening in the state of florida. a question for you and for heilman but first the nbc marist poll shows president obama leading all candidates in match to match. newt gingrich furthest out losing to the president by 17 points. it shows president obama tied with mitt romney in 12 key battleground states. the other three republican presidential candidates trail obama by double digits. so the chairman of the republican party is looking ahead to the general election with some tough messaging against president obama. take a look. >> in a few months this is all going to be ancient history and we're going to talk about our

own captain which is president obama who is abandoning the ship here in the united states and is more interested in campaigning than doing his job as president. >> what did you call president obama? >> i called him the captain that fled the ship in italy. that's our own president who is fleeing the american people and not doing his job and running around the country and campaigning. >> okay. so i just don't understand why jeb bush wouldn't get behind someone and try to end this a little sooner. wouldn't that endorsement make a big difference? >> i'm still trying to wrap my arms around that analogy. >> i think it's unfortunate analogy. people died in that situation. i think again cute by nowhere. i think the reality of it is the rnc, the party, has to come to the country with a message. they haven't done that. they dropped the ball. now you go from for romney to be

the nominee. regardless of how you criticize santorum, paul, gingrich, they have big ideas that people want to rally around until the special interest come in with $12 million worth of negative ads. >> what do you think about the comparison that the chairman of the rnc just made? >> i am with michael steele on that. i get that it is cute but it's too cute and people died and there are many things could you say about the president but that he's left people sinking on a ship to parish under water in a cowardly and disgusting fashion is not appropriate. that's a little much. >> that is much. >> or more than a little much. it's a lot much. >> obviously the head of the dnc said that about a republican president, we would all say the same thing. a little much. >> i was talking about getting music. i didn't hear it. now i get it.

that's bad. now what about jeb bush. why isn't he endorsing someone? >> because -- i'm sorry. if mitt romney were the champion of education reform. if he dared to take on the establishment. the teachers union. if he came out with big ideas where he actually risked something, maybe jeb would say, all right. he's taken a chance. if he were willing to argue for a fairer and a flatter tax system, a flat tax perhaps, who knows, then maybe that. but when mitt goes around talking for conservatives like me, right, i get my issues with newt gingrich but for conservatives like me mitt is not closing the deal by attacking newt. mitt is not closing the deal by reciting the words to "america the beautiful." mitt is not going to get my vote in the primary if mitt doesn't

start fighting for something. >> he's not had a positive agenda let alone a conservative agenda beyond i'm the best one to beat barack obama because in a bad economy i'm a business leader. beyond that, he's had no positive message throughout the entire campaign. i think that's a problem for him with conservatives. if you are jeb bush, let's just do real publolitic here. if i'm jeb bush and i think there's a 50-50 chance, maybe worse than 50-50 the republicans will lose in 2012 and i, jeb bush, am likely to run in 2016, do i want bobby jindal, chris christie, everybody else who might run against me to be able to run ads about how i endorsed mitt romney who turned out to be not strong enough to take on barack obama. i don't want that if i'm jeb bush. >> you're becoming less and less

likely to do it. there's no incentive. >> why do i want that fight? >> conservatives and michael will i'm sure confirm this for me. we conservatives feel betrayed by the republican establishment. george w. bush was doubling the national debt and took $155 surplus into a trillion dollar deficit. his foreign policies he said he would rid the world of tyranny in all four corners. as bill buckley said before he died, bush's ideas are not conservative ideas. will we rush into the arms of mitt romney when we're afraid we may get four more years of big government conservatism? the republican establishment, they don't mind that. they just want to win. we actually want to win the country. >> the old saying fool me once,

shame on you. fool me twice, shame on me. >> telling me that mitt romney is not as bad as barack obama, is not enough for me. i want someone to transform this country. take on the teachers union. go after medicare and balance the budget and get us out of war zones across the globe. >> you don't know that. >> i know i don't. >> you'll find that person some day but you ain't finding them this year. >> this is the key. you hit it right on the head. it's not big government conservatism. it's big government republicism. mitt would run for president the way he ran for governor. you'll connect to people in your state and go into small shops in communities and tell them what you're going to do in a big way.

show them your compassion for them but you're going to show them how you're going to lead them as well. that connection just hasn't happened. this is not a campaign for folks who want to stay up here. this is very close to the ground because that's where obama is going to run it. close to the ground. >> when ronald reagan ran back in 1980, he had been grappling for 30 years with what it meant to be a consertive. everybody talked about how reagan was stupid, this, that and the other. we found out after he passed away thanks to martin anderson that reagan every time he sat on a plane, a train, a car, he was constantly reading. constantly writing things down. by 1980, he understood what it meant to be a conservative and where he wanted to take this country. like in 1979 in britain. mitt romney hasn't done that. he can't connect the dots for us

conservatives. >> the most, most successful presidents and presidential candidates have a theory of the case. you can say that about bill clinton on the democratic side. 30 years stewing in his party's ideological and policies disputes knew what he wanted to do, had a their theory of marrying that to policy. carried that out. you can see barack obama has a similar problem. i don't know many people that can explain what obamaism is and what he believes and his theory of the case. >> you look at the state of the union address this past week. a great political speech. at the end of the day, we ask the same thing of him as romney. what does it mean? nothing. nothing. there is no ideological basis to that. >> i can tell you in about six sentences what reaganism is. i can tell you in eight sentences what clintonism is. i can't tell new eight paragraphs what obamaism is or romneyism is. they have views and beliefs and

policies but the essence of the thing is still opaque. it's a problem. >> gene, is that fair? >> not entirely. >> what is obamaism? >> i think obamaism -- my understanding of obamaism is that he believes our left-right political spectrum is broken and we've crowded at the ends of it and what he talked about during the campaign and i think this is obamaism, whether or not we've seen it develop or not, is expanding in a different direction on a not just x and y axis but z axis as well. >> you understand what i'm saying? i don't know that barack obama has found his ism.

>> you don't have to evaluate every policy as to whether people on the left like it or people on the right like it. >> do you think he's post-partisan? >> i think obamaism is theoretically that. if you want to know how things have worked out in practice, he's not been partisan for years but that's not his responsibility solely. >> here's the reason i think there's an opacity to obama. after three years, people on the left think obama has been a compromising sellout centrist. his supporters are confused. left think he's too centrist. >> the right thinks he's a socialist. >> that his policies are not supposed to make anybody entirely comfortable because

he's not thinking of them in terms of left, right. >> mika, let me ask you the same thing. let me ask you real quickly, what for you is "obamaism?" what does it mean? what does the obama presidency mean? >> i think this is painful to say but it is still evolving. i think it's about raising our respect around the world and also trying to bring together people from different economic backgrounds and create more mobility from within the middle class and restore jobs and innovation to this country. i think he came in saying one thing but then faced a very difficult situation and has had to evolve his message along the way. has had to deal with a very difficult opposition. >> everybody knows peace through strength what it was and what it meant. economic policy. everyone knew what that met. >> whether you agree with health care or not, they don't add up

to what obama meant to do and tried to do? >> you saw gene draw an x, y, z axis and nobody knows what that means. >> there have been, i would say, one speech in kansas and one foreign policy endeavor that could be the blueprint for the president moving forward. libya, which conservatives say is leading from behind, was actually something that i supported in saying here's the deal. we're not going to fight your wars for you anymore. arab league, if you want us to come in, you tell us. we're not going to go in and save you guys and then have you burning american flags. same thing as we move forward to iran as your father said yesterday. if we have to go to war with iran, we're not doing that by ourselves. we're not doing that with iran and israel. if europe wants to come along, if other people want to come along, then let's talk about it. that is a possible obamaism

moving forward. >> one button on this conversation. it may be hard to get your arms around what obamaism is. romneyism is just a whiff. there's nothing there. >> you can say he saved the economy. >> we have too many words for obamaism and can't figure out what it is. the positive vision of romney is what? >> i will give you the answer and he hasn't annunciated it well. this is because he doesn't feel it in his gut. romneyism is trusting the private sector to create jobs rather than a centralized state. but even he doesn't know how to say that effectively because i don't know that he really understands milton friedman. i don't know that he understands iowa. i don't know that he understands an economists. he may feel like let people go out and make lots of money but he may not understand the foundation of that. >> the motor out there, the

working guy if he's lucky enough to be working, i don't know what romney is about and obama saved the economy. >> nobody believes that obama saved the economy other than those that work for barack obama. in the state of florida we have 10% unemployment. if that's saving the economy, he'll say give me the other option. >> the other option would have been bad if he had not done what he did. >> that's the argument. that's going to be the argument. barack obama could make a strong argument i saved the economy from going off the cliff. republicans make the argument we're in bad music. are you guys going to salsa dance. >> show me. i don't know how. show me. come on, gene. come on. i don't know how. okay. let me undo him. pretend you hear music.

okay. you go back. >> i don't know how to dance. oh, my lord. i'm nervous. help me! help me! >> here we are. >> how cool am i? >> i don't know how to tell you this but you look like hell. dave barry is here. we found dave barry walking down the street here. as fate would have it he's wearing studio makeup. we'll put him on the show next. we'll be right back. the employee of the month is...

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>> i hereby officially and enthusiastically endorse newt gingrich for president of the united states. speaker gingrich is not afraid of bold ideas. i also know that speaker gingrich is running for president and going through this sausage grinder. i know what this saucing an grinder is all about.

i know that he's going through this sausage grinder because he cares about the future of the united states of america. >> welcome back to "morning joe." here with us now, miami herald columnist dave barry, co-author of the book "lunatics." it appeared you loved the salsa dancing. he was mocking us terribly. >> i was inspired to get into politics by reading books. that's why we have dave barry here. i think he's a teddy white of our time. if teddy white were alive today, he would actually be right here because south beach is really -- it is the dixville notch. >> there is no more politically concerned area in this nation than south beach. >> why is that? >> they come out of the clubs

3:00, 4:00 in the morning, maybe they've had a couple of drinks. maybe. and they're thinking -- >> it clears the mind. >> they think i wonder how much warren buffett's secretary pays in taxes. i want to find out. that's what they're thinking about. >> perhaps why in my freshman year of political science, my teacher said so goes south beach, so goes france. this is the heartbeat of america. >> conventional wisdom would put us along the corridor. collins and ocean on this square block is as far as i'm willing to go. >> you just say those two streets right there. >> if you were to take a one-mile radius of this area, you could probably find 10,

maybe 12 people who are planning to vote in this primary. that's the kind of commitment. >> unfortunately 11 of them are democrats and don't live in florida. >> or not even united states citizens necessarily. you have been in miami a long time. >> i moved here in 1986 from the united states. i've been here a long time. >> i guess south beach had not come into its own yet. those were still the days of tony montana. right as scar face was coming out. >> first time i landed in miami i rented a car at the airport and got lost. i saw a car go by that had bullet holes in the door. not like an accessory. they had been -- >> shopping malls used to get shot up. drug wars down here. >> south beach -- >> madonna moved here. a lot of things bad happened in 1980. >> she's here by the way. >> she's obviously going to vote. >> she's at jerry's all the

time. >> if you took pictures when you first moved here -- >> sitting in aluminum chairs. >> now it's people on tv. >> how did it change? a lot of us started coming down in the last 15, 20 years, it's always been this. >> the thing that made south beach and it was funny when it happened was "miami vice." miami was trying to pretend it was orlando which it never will be. when the show came out about people driving around shooting each other, the people here were horrified. the chamber of commerce and everything. within a matter of weeks it was the coolest show on television. this is good to be shooting and running around. >> and the word double breasted jackets with t-shirts. >> it's not so bad that giant

bails of marijuana are washing up on the beach. everyone is good with that. >> it beats orlando which is why we're here. >> look at me. 2012 version of crockett. >> you forgot to button the button. how much do you miss right now herman cain? if he were still alive, what would he say about this? >> when this was a really fun group, can you believe it's come down to this? here we are. to me it's like the republican primary was they were thinking the prom is coming, we're going to have a date for the prom. one by one all of the hot girls are taken and you end up going to the prom with mitt romney. that's not probably what they were thinking at the start. >> i don't know if that's fair. >> i personally wouldn't go to the prom with mitt. that's all i am saying. >> would you go to the prom with newt? >> definitely. i'm kidding. >> topaz versus the corvette.

>> i would go to the prom with a woman just for the record. i just want to get that out there. >> you have become -- >> i would go to prom with my wife. >> better. >> a slow recovery but a good one. >> delayed there so you're in trouble. >> you're a florida expert. everyone looks to explain florida. i did a book review in miami and you told amazing stories about florida. what is it about this place that every time i see a news story, it can't be real? >> it's the weirdest city -- i'll try to tell this quickly. this is a true story. this happened two years ago. two homeless guys are fishing in biscayne bay and they catch a 6-foot nurse shark and they wanted to make money to sell it to a wholesaler on the miami river. they didn't have a car so they took public transportation. they got on the people mover with the shark that was not dead yet. the people mover is called a people mover and not designed for marine life. it's a live shark.

i got an e-mail from the lady on the people mover, i'm commuting hope and there's a live shark. we could have had a situation where a person was attacked by a shark on public transportation. it didn't happen unfortunately because that would have been the best story of all time. it's a weird, weird city. >> it is a weird city. >> you're here now and it's even weirder. >> the book is "lunatics." dave barry, thank you for being here. we'll bring in congressman verne buchanan tomorrow and jack kingston. we'll be back right now with the mayor of miami gardens, shirley gibson. [ male announcer ] you are a business pro. premier of the packed bag. you know organization is key...

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>> speaker gingrich i think has painfully revealed himself over these last few days. it's sad to watch. i think unfortunately we're seeing some of the qualities that got him into so much trouble when he was speaker of the house. >> he has a basic policy of carpet bombing his opponents. he doesn't try to build up mitt

romney, he tries to tear down the opponents he runs against. i give them respect for sheer volume of negativity they used and sheer amount of money they raise on wall street. >> welcome back to "morning joe." 37 past the hour. the first mayor of the city of miami gardens mayor. good to have you with us. >> we get people here from the city of north miami. miami gardens. miami lakes. how many cities are there where there is just one city in this are area,. >> tell us why the vote here, what's important about it and why you think it will make a difference in this election! >> we're very diverse but we have a large african-american population and hispanic

population. we're a determining factor when it comes to elections especially on the presidential election. it's important for us to make sure that the people are here voting and they go out to vote. >> talk about the economy. unemployment now around 10%. it's been hovering 10%, 11%, 12% for the last three years. how bad is it in your community? how bad is it in south florida? >> it's about the same in my community as it is in south florida. we're an urban community when these bubbles hit with the economy, it hits the same with us. we have a very stable workforce in the city of miami gardens of a lot of professionals who have their jobs and continue to have their jobs. we have a population who have been impacted by the economy. we've had unemployment very high in the last three or four years but for eight years, ten years, it isn't that we've just been faced with high unemployment rates in our community. we've always had issues with unemployment. >> i guess statewide it caught up. 12% unemployment rate in the

state of florida starting in 2009. obviously our entire state, the sunshine state from pensacola all of the way down to key west has been absolutely hammered in this housing crisis. it is just the whole food chain has dried up. >> when that happens, obviously state tax bases and national tax base shrinks a little. you have been mayor now for two terms so you are at the end of your second term. you're term limited. what are differences in budgeting for your city between today and say 2003, 2004. >> the difference for us happened around 2006 because we started in 2003 and then that bubble started to go up so the property values went up two years after we became a city. when that started to drop and we were losing a lot of value, what we do as a city and have always

done, we've been very fiscally sound. we have -- we run a tight ship in the city of miami gardens we don't have the extras that other cities have because we started with less resources. doing that helped us when we hit this crisis. we didn't have to start laying people off. we didn't have to start changing a lot of our programming because of the fact that we were very lean fiscal city and very responsible. >> you know, willie, it's interesting when we go from state to state. iowa, low unemployment rate. new hampshire the same. you go to south carolina, things getting tougher. down in florida you get a feeling that this tuesday people are going to vote about the economy a lot more than they did in those earlier states because here middle class americans are really hurting. >> no question. some of those earlier states unemployment wasn't too bad. i think this is the first state that offers a real cross section of what's happening in the country. you have isolated issues in iowa and new hampshire to some extent

but in florida we're talking about everything from issues of immigration, issues of employment, how do these candidates play in south florida when you talk about mitt romney versus newt gingrich. how do you view the difference between those? how do your constituents view that difference? >> why are you smiling? >> i am smiling because i talk to a lot of african-americans and they are paying attention to these debates and they're democrats. they are really interested and paying attention. they are looking and talking about the differences for them and difference certainly when you talk about the economy and what's going to make it work and you talk about immigration and you talk about what's real because we see it every day here in dade county because of the fact that we have so many immigrant people here and it's diverse. they look at who is talking about issues that will be applicable to florida and that's the economy. it's about immigration to a certain extent but it is about jobs and it really is also about health care.

we have a very large elderly population here in florida. especially here in miami-dade county. so when you start talking about issue that is going to change the quality of life, people are paying attention. they are looking at what separates these two candidates and that is something -- you know, they are looking at what's the stability of what they're saying? people are having a problem with every other day you change because of the mood or what's happening. people are paying attention to that. i'm happy about that especially in my community. >> mayor gibson, thank you so much for being with us. >> thank you. i'm glad to be here. listen, in march things get rough. i'll invite to you come down to miami gardens to come to jazz in the gardens. march 17 and 18. come down. you got to do that. all right. >> we'll even bring willie along. >> and barnicle. >> mayor shirley gibson, thank you so much. we'll be back live from jerry's famous deli on miami beach. losing weight clicked for me

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>> welcome back to jerry's famous deli in south beach. we're going to take a moment to do something special. >> it's my daughter's birthday. she needs a present. sweet 16. >> i may have something for her. sweet, sweet dear lewis birdman

at home where looks are valued over other attributes. >> and where tramp stamps are given out a dime a dozen. >> what's a tramp stamp? >> we're going to show you. our main man has one. here he is. ♪ >> we know south beach is known for vibrant night life and what we don't know is now is how south floridians feel about the republican candidates. >> who would you pick? >> romney, paul, ifvy to do it, i don't see they'll fix the problem. >> i hope anyone can beat obama. >> i would vote for michael bloomberg. i don't have a account. >> i don't care for mr. gingrich in any way, shape or form.

he talks out of two sides of his mouth. >> i'm not convinced that anyone is telling me what i want to hear. >> do you believe in open marriage? >> that's a question for her. >> definitely. >> if we put all personal issues aside, ron paul. >> i want them to just go home. go home and stay away. >> it's difficult to stay focused on anything in miami especially on politics for that matter. it's surprisingly easy to veer dangerously off course. as a result, now i have a memory from this primary season that will last me a lifetime. >> i think right now the republican party doesn't do it. >> obama is doing a good job. people with money make the rules. the ones without money, have to

suffer the blues. >> i always write my own name in on the ballot. that way my whole life is a campaign deduction. >> i love you guys! >> i think the problem is and its everyone's problem is there isn't anybody they really like. >> my thing is i really -- it really annoys me and aggravates me is everyone is democratic, republican, democratic, republican. we're all human at the end of the day. >> do you think we would have colonies on the moon? >> my honest opinion? who gives a [ bleep ] about the moon. let's figure out this country. it's midnight? sou south beach. you can't get serious. >> can you believe what he did to his back.

>> you're watching "morning joe." that is a tramp stamp. >> we're sorry. >> all right. we are live from jerry's famous deli in miami beach. we're going to clean it up when we return. [ male announcer ] we know you don't wait

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mike barnle, what do you say we put on the bikinis and hang on the beach today? >> i'm so cool i already done that. >> two big days here at jerry's famous deli. we'll talk to jack kingston. a big show tomorrow. we'll be back to tell you what we learned today. ♪ if you want it you got it i never believed anything as much as i believed i'd be overweight and unhealthy my whole life... until weight watchers. points plus gave me strength nothing else did. and i lost 46 pounds.

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>> welcome back to "morning joe." it is so great to be here in south beach. i tell you what, we have had a wonderful show this morning from south beach. lets go around and talk about what we learned today. let's start with you. what did you learn? >> i learned that doing a shot outdoors in south beach in the middle of winter is a lot more pleasant than in washington in the middle of winter. >> no doubt about it. what did you learn, willie? >> that wondering

if she's going to get her baby back. >> i learned i've never been in a friendlier place because this morning at 4:30 three different women asked if i wanted to party on the way here. >> there's not a single republican within 20 miles of this place that we don't give a damn. >> what did you learn? >> i learned that i need to hang out with this guy at 4:30 in the morning. >> you just need dollar bills. look at that. miami's own jesse. how are you, buddy? you're home finally. >> it's beautiful. weather is great. i know that mika can salsa. >> no. no, she can't. what did you learn? >> if you check the politico playbook, max is now miami. >> what's your name? >> alison. >> where are you from? >> burlington, vermont. >> all right. let me tell you what you learned today, never give your baby to mika because she won't give it